How Trump And Congress Are About To Ruin America’s $220 Billion Economic Secret Weapon

When most people think of the U.S. Census Bureau, they probably don’t think of an agency that supercharges the profitability and efficiency of American businesses.

Nor do they realize that one of the economy’s best secret weapons is facing its greatest crisis since James Madison and Thomas Jefferson created it in 1790.

But then again, most people haven’t built a $4.5 billion fortune based on Census data, the way Jack and Laura

Dangermond have.The Dangermonds, sweethearts since high school, had an epiphany about data while they were graduate students at Harvard in 1967, a time when the university was awash in protests and political strife. They were both working in a lab developing the nascent field of computerized mapping, now better known as geographic information systems.

Their revelation was that good data, clearly presented ― in their case, with maps ― could help people better understand the world and make decisions without all the ruckus roiling their campus and nation.

He didn’t realize at the time how valuable their idea would be. But these days, the vast majority of the country’s 1,000 largest businesses use the software that the Dangermonds’ company, Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), creates. Numerous state, local and federal government agencies also use the software, and the company reaps revenues north of $1 billion a year.

Businesses use Esri’s programs to figure out where their customers are and what they want. If Starbucks, Walmart or Target opens a new store, it’s because the data and maps have suggested where it has the best chance to succeed. Governments use the maps for everything from improving policing and disaster response to planning new schools, roads and untold numbers of other services.

“I like to call my work the science of ‘where,’” Dangermond said.

Much of the data his approximately 100,000 U.S. customers use comes from the Census Bureau ― the largest, most important source of the raw information that businesses and governments need to function.

“The world today is all about analytics, and the Census Bureau provides systematic and science-based information about the demographic profile of Americans,” Dangermond said. “Census data is in many ways the lifeblood of these kinds of organizations.”

That’s not an exaggeration ― and it’s why the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends a lot of time trying to persuade Congress and the White House to keep the bureau and its data production well-funded.

“Policymakers need the information arising from these federal activities to formulate sound policy,” said J.D. Foster, the Chamber’s chief economist. “Many Chamber members use this information more directly in their own business planning as they attempt to identify trends in consumer behavior and preferences, resulting in better business decisions and ultimately a stronger overall economy.”

Indeed, the businesses that use this government data generate up to $220 billion a year in economic activity, according to a U.S. Department of Commerce study.

But Congress and the White House don’t seem to share the same high estimation of the Census Bureau, judging by the money they are willing to spend as it gears up for two of the most challenging statistical counts on the planet ― the constitutionally mandated 2020 enumeration of every person in America, and the 2017 Economic Census. The Economic Census surveys the nation’s businesses every five years, and underpins all the government’s reports on things like unemployment and the gross domestic product.

Historically, when the bureau is preparing for the decennial census and starting the Economic Census, it gets a dramatic funding boost to address the enormous tasks. From 2007 to 2008, Congress increased the agency’s budget by nearly $500 million to cover prep work that year alone.

Nothing of that sort is happening this year, and the agency’s funding was already lower than its estimated need. The outgoing Obama administration had recommended a 2017 allocation of $1.63 billion. But Congress never got around to passing a regular budget for this year, instead pushing through a string of stopgap bills that gave the Census Bureau $1.47 billion ― a shortfall of about $160 million. The Trump administration’s proposed 2018 budget would only barely boost it, to $1.5 billion.

The stakes for the Census are especially high this time around. Counting every person in a country with a population of more than 300 million is difficult and expensive; the 2010 count cost about $12.3 billion over several years, or about $92 per housing unit. That was about 30 percent more than it cost in 2000. Part of the escalating cost is simple arithmetic ― the population had grown by 27 million people over that period.

But another factor is the declining percentage of Americans who respond to the Census by mail, forcing the bureau to open offices around the country and hire tens of thousands of people to go out and get that data by going door to door. According to the Government Accountability Office, that follow-up to non-responses is the agency’s largest, most costly field operation.

A failed attempt at using new, hand-held devices to automate more of the work also complicated the 2010 Census. When the costly machines didn’t function properly during tests, the bureau had to abandon them.